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This pattern has been evident in both the United States and the more heavily indebted Japanese and European economies. Carmen Reinhart, Vincent Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff (which will be referred to as RR&R), in the Summer 2022 issue of the Journal of Economic Perspectives linked extreme sustained over indebtedness with the level of interest rates. They found that the economic growth rate is reduced by slightly more than a third, compared when the debt metric is not met. Due to poor economic conditions in major overseas economies, 10- and 30-year government bond yields in Japan, Germany, France, and many other European countries are much lower than in the United States. Foreign investors will continue to be attracted to long-term U.S. Investment in Treasury bonds should also have further appeal to domestic investors, as economic growth disappoints and inflation recedes in 2022.

Still Bullish On The Long Bond – Lacy Hunt Joins Alpha Trader (Podcast Transcript) – Seeking Alpha

Still Bullish On The Long Bond – Lacy Hunt Joins Alpha Trader (Podcast Transcript).

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We need a free market in rates, not a pack of group-think charlatans using fatally flawed economic models. Dr. Hunt served on the Board of Trustees of Temple University from 1987 to 2022 and is now an honorary life trustee. He received the Abramson Award from the National Association for Business Economics for “outstanding contributions in the field of business economics.” He is a life member of the American Finance Association. He was a member of the Economic Advisory Board of the American Bankers Association and Chairman of the Economic Advisory Board of the Pennsylvania Bankers Association. He served on the Monetary and Fiscal Policy Affairs Committee of the National Chamber of Commerce. Lacy Hunt is the author of two books, and numerous articles in leading magazines, periodicals and scholarly journals.

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  • The flawed dual mandate of inflation and unemployment stems from the basic fact that no stable trade-off exists between wage increases and the unemployment rate.
  • The Hoisington Management first-quarter 2022 bond outlook has a markedly different feel this month.
  • He is known for his long-held views that interest rates in the United States will continue to decline.
  • Third, an econometric study by Alberto Alesina, Carlo Favero and Francesco Giavazzi in the Journal of International Economics in 2022, corroborates that the tax and expenditure multipliers are both negative, with the tax multiplier more negative.